– Slow-developing technologies often result in major breakthroughs. – Companies must track innovations to avoid being blindsided by competitors. – Effective management requires understanding interdependent technologies. – The Technology Feasibility Matrix aids in prioritization of R&D efforts. – Organizations must foster a culture of technological awareness to capitalize on disruptions.
Major breakthroughs in technology often depend on the maturation of multiple slow-developing innovations, which can take decades to fully realize. Companies need to keep a close watch on the evolution of these technologies to remain competitive. The case of self-driving cars illustrates this; although they are perceived as modern, their development spans a hundred years and provides insights into managing innovations reliant on various technologies that evolve at different speeds and costs.
Self-driving technological advancements began with Ford’s 1925 demonstration of the American Wonder, a remotely controlled vehicle. General Motors followed in 1958 with the Firebird III, capable of navigating a span of road autonomously. However, despite significant investment from companies like Google and Tesla over the last two decades, full autonomous driving remains largely in pilot project stages due to the slow maturation of essential supporting technologies.
The commercial viability of self-driving vehicles faces challenges due to reliance on several technologies, including LiDAR, GPS, and AI. These technologies have matured unevenly over the years, with LiDAR systems starting at exorbitant prices but currently costing just $100 to $200. Understanding the economic trajectories of these developments is crucial for companies looking to innovate in these fields.
Companies often struggle to track the long-term development of these technologies, mistakenly believing a delay in investment is wise. They may miss significant opportunities if they wait until after technologies have been commercialized. The internet exemplifies this, where early hesitation to invest led some companies to fail as the technology matured and disrupted entire industries.
Effective tracking of emerging technologies requires a shift in perspective from focusing on individual innovations to understanding the ecosystem of intertwined technologies. Companies should strategically monitor several technologies that could have a significant long-term impact, which would involve analyzing research trends and government funding for new technologies.
Creating a Technology Feasibility Matrix allows companies to categorize technologies based on practicality and cost, helping to prioritize innovation strategies. Technologies fall into quadrants: moon shots, mission critical, magic bullets, and mass market, informing strategic decisions on R&D investment and development efforts.
Understanding the convergence window of technologies is critical for success, allowing companies to anticipate when various technologies will be ready for market integration. Companies that manage this convergence effectively can leverage new technologies and maintain a competitive edge, like Nike’s innovation model which integrates cutting-edge materials and designs.
Strategies for managing emerging technologies include proactive identification of convergence windows, developing intermediate products to enhance capabilities, and swiftly responding when competitors seize the lead. Formulating plans to enter luxury or niche markets can sustain early adoption until costs decrease further.
To navigate the challenges posed by slow-evolving technologies, CEOs must foster an organizational culture that values technological understanding across all levels. Organizations should implement systematic approaches that encourage various inquiries into emerging technologies, similar to how DARPA collaborates with diverse experts to drive innovative projects.
In conclusion, companies that invest in understanding the complexities of slow-evolving technologies stand to gain a significant competitive advantage. Integrating proactive strategies and fostering a culture of innovation will position organizations effectively to capitalize on future technological advancements and disruptions.
To remain competitive in an era defined by slow-evolving technologies, companies must adopt systematic strategies for monitoring and managing these innovations. Emphasizing a culture of technological understanding while leveraging strategic tools to assess feasibility and convergence will allow organizations to capitalize on opportunities and mitigate risks.
Original Source: hbr.org
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